Early Hurricane Season 2012

According to the Harrisburg Examiner: "Two named storms before the June 1 official start to hurricane season. It’s the first time since 1908 that such an occurrence has happened in the Atlantic. Then add Tropical Storm Chris which formed yesterday in the Northern Atlantic and wasn’t forecast to strengthen past tropical storm status but unexpectedly became the first hurricane of the 2012 season this afternoon. According to the National Hurricane Center it’s only the third time that three storms have formed before June 19. The other two occasions were the 1887 and 1959 hurricane seasons. With such an active start, should the U.S. be preparing for a potentially deadly and active hurricane season?
The official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seasonal hurricane outlook which was released May 24, stated that “NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years”. To support their prediction, they cited high wind sheer and cooler sea surface temperatures which inhibit tropical cyclone formation.

According to Foxnews: "A strong storm system across the eastern United States caused five fatalities and wiped out power to more than 2 million people. There were four reported deaths in Virginia, including a 90-year-old woman asleep in bed when a tree slammed into her home, a police spokeswoman said Saturday. Another man was killed by a falling tree while watching the storm from his deck and a woman died after she, too, was hit by a falling tree after she got out of her car to observe a downed tree. Both those deaths occurred in Albermarle County, Va. A fallen tree also killed a man driving in Maryland."

The Examiner piece goes on: "Looking at the past years mentioned by the National Hurricane Center when referencing how early the three storms have already formed, the seasons of 1887, 1908 and 1959 have been mentioned. Those seasons looked like this.

• 1887 was the third most active season on record (tied for third with 2010 and 2011) with 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes.
• 1908 had 10 names storms and six hurricanes and it’s interesting to note that the east coast of the United States was affected by four of the 10 storms.
• 1959 had 11 named storms and seven hurricanes and two of the 11 storms affected the United States east coast."

...suggesting that this year may be worse than expected; it will be interesting to see what happens. Teh NOAA prediction is doubtless hedging on a possible El Nino this year, according to the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP: "There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012."